Assessing the risk of Covid-19 transmission

Relevant RTS critical priority(ies):
Data driven; Easy to use for all

At the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, RSSB developed a model to help the rail industry understand the risk of transmission when travelling by train. Since then, RSSB has been developing and refining the Covid-19 passenger infection risk model and providing the industry with updates on a regular basis.  The model incorporates multiple inputs including:

• passenger demand levels
• train service provision
• the Office for National Statistics reported community infection and antibody and vaccination rates, along with data on effectiveness of vaccines and antibodies
• face covering usage rates for passengers
• train ventilation details
• train loading distribution data
• information on test and trace, proportion of symptomatic cases and adherence to isolation requirements
• information on the relative infectiousness of variants.

The model uses the inputs to provide a range of risk estimates rather than a single probability based on one fixed scenario, thus providing a detailed view of the current and potential future effects of the COVID-19 situation.

The information has provided valuable guidance to industry to ensure that passenger rail travel is as safe as possible from Covid-19. All the available evidence suggests that the risks to passengers are low.

This video explains how RSSB is helping industry understand, reduce and manage the impact of Covid-19 so passengers can be confident about returning to rail.